A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, poses an intriguing risk to Earth, with a 1.2% chance of collision in 2032. Currently orbiting safely at 515,116 miles from Earth and moving away, it will make its closest approach in December 2028. While the odds are high—98.8% it won’t hit us this time—it’s a reminder of our solar system’s dangers.
Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) first spotted YR4 on December 27, 2024, at a distance of 829,000 kilometers. Though the current impact probability is preliminary and could be off by factors of three to ten, it’s still concerning. At 180 feet across (55 meters), it’s small enough not to threaten global stability but could cause localized destruction.
Asteroid Apophis, another notable threat with a Torino rating of four, has had its risk downgraded to zero after extensive monitoring. YR4, rated three, means there’s a 1% chance of collision that could cause damage. However, future observations may lower this risk to “No hazard.”
The asteroid’s speed—10.76 miles per second (17.32 km/s)—is crucial for its potential impact energy, estimated at 8 megatons—a far greater threat than the 1945 Hiroshima bomb but comparable to the 1908 Tunguska event.
Monitoring remains critical as asteroids like YR4 could change course or trajectory, increasing or decreasing their threat. The lessons from past asteroid encounters underscore the importance of vigilance in our fight against space-based threats.
Source: https://gizmodo.com/nasa-flags-newly-discovered-asteroid-as-top-earth-impact-threat-2000555838