The Athletic has released its live coverage of the 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament, featuring projections for every team’s chances of advancing through each weekend of March Madness. The projections are based on 200,000 simulations of the 68-team bracket, taking into account a team’s projected strength and path to the national title.
Each team has been assigned an odds score, representing its chance to win the tournament. The projections also factor in the First Four games, where teams will face off against each other in neutral-site contests.
The Athletic uses a comprehensive methodology that involves creating offensive and defensive projections for every college basketball team using various box score metrics. This helps estimate how many points a team would score and allow in a game against an average opponent on a neutral court.
After simulating the tournament 200,000 times, The Athletic calculates how often each team is likely to make each round of the tournament and win the championship. For example, if a team has a 10 percent chance of making the Final Four, that means it’s made the cut in approximately 10% of the simulations.
The projections are updated after every tournament game and can be explored by hovering or tapping on each team’s odds score.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6198047/2025/03/21/mens-march-madness-projections-2025-full-ncaa-tournament-bracket-odds