The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills are projected to be the top teams in the AFC, with the Bills seen as favorites. However, this model doesn’t see the Chiefs as conference favorites, instead giving them a close third spot.
AFC East is expected to be dominated by the Bills, who have won five consecutive division crowns under Josh Allen’s leadership. The Patriots are projected to double their win total from last year and could potentially dethrone the Bills.
The AFC North pits two top quarterbacks against each other, with Lamar Jackson leading the Ravens and Joe Burrow in charge of the Bengals. The Ravens have a 55% chance of winning the division, while the Bengals sit at 32%.
AFC South is expected to be a close contest between the Texans and Jaguars, with both teams struggling at quarterback. The Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence could improve under new coach Liam Coen’s offense.
In the AFC West, Kansas City remains the favorite but only has a 60% chance of winning the division. Denver’s Sean Payton and the Las Vegas Raiders’ Pete Carroll also have strong projections, while the Chargers face a tough road without their preseason-injured Rashawn Slater.
The model uses play-by-play data to create simulations that predict team performance.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6562753/2025/08/20/nfl-projection-model-afc-win-totals-2025