Fantasy football projections can be misleading, particularly when it comes to wide receivers. The “Draft Chasms of Doom” series reveals steep drops in player value right at the top of the curve. However, there are only two truly elite wide receivers: Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.
These two receivers have a higher ceiling than others, making them more attainable despite conservative projections. For most fantasy teams, avoiding big drops to low floor is the main focus. Examining the biggest dips in positional projections can help smart drafting and avoid selecting the next-highest-ranked player at a position of need.
The graphs show significant fall-offs among wide receivers, with some gaps as small as 30 points between WR23 and WR40. This suggests that teams should not be overly attached to mid-tier receivers (WR4s and WR5s) but rather focus on targeting high-end talent in the top two tiers.
If drafting a wide receiver, don’t worry if your favorite sleeper like Ricky Pearsall goes before you pick. Instead, aim for another player with a similar situation or quick path to a starting job. This strategy can help teams capitalize on top receivers and avoid overpaying for mid-tier talent.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6497700/2025/07/17/fantasy-football-draft-wr-rankings-values-adp