The fall of the Assad regime in Syria marks a significant shift for the country and its people. The regime’s atrocities have finally come to an end, but the road to recovery is fraught with uncertainty. The international community is cautiously optimistic about a new Syria, but experts warn that the situation is far more complex than initially thought.
Unlike Libya, which was plagued by a decade of brutal conflict, Syria’s revolution comes after over 12 years of ongoing violence. This has decimated much of the country’s infrastructure, created a massive refugee crisis, and seen the death toll climb to over 600,000. Social divisions run deep in Syria, with communal rifts significantly deeper than they were in Libya.
The structure of Syria’s economy is also vastly different from Libya’s. Under heavy sanctions, the Assad regime has become a major producer of illicit goods, including amphetamines. This has led to an uneven distribution of wealth and resources, with certain areas operating as if there was a formal partition.
Perhaps the most pressing challenge facing Syria is the security landscape. The country is plagued by armed groups controlling territory, with many factions vying for power. Haya’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has emerged as a key player, but its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa now faces significant challenges in bringing these groups under control.
Experts warn that Sharaa’s efforts to disband the armed factions and bring them under state control will be highly challenging. External meddling from states such as Russia, Turkey, and the UAE is likely to continue, potentially fueling conflict between rival factions. The international community must navigate this complex landscape carefully to support a stable transition in Syria.
Source: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/12/syrias-challenges-are-even-greater-those-libya-faced-2011