Eli Lilly’s stock price dropped 8% on Tuesday, its worst single-day decline in nearly four years, following the company’s fourth-quarter sales forecast for weight-loss drug Zepbound. The move is the second time sales have disappointed investors since the drug’s launch in late 2023.
Lilly’s shares had surged earlier this year as investors bet on Zepbound’s popularity. However, sales disappointment in October and subsequent subdued performance have led to Tuesday’s decline. Analysts say the forecast may still impact investor confidence in incretin demand.
The company expects $3.5 billion in Mounjaro sales for the fourth quarter, with an expected $1.9 billion for Zepbound. Analysts had predicted $5.35 billion and $2.08 billion, respectively. Lilly’s Chief Financial Officer Lucas Montarce said that wholesalers did not build up their stocks of incretins as they normally would, contributing to the sales disappointment.
Lilly forecasts 2025 sales between $58 billion and $61 billion, with the midpoint above analysts’ estimates. The company plans to launch Zepbound in new markets, including China, India, Brazil, and Mexico, in 2025.
The company’s valuations are higher than peers Merck & Co and Pfizer, with a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 34.59.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lilly-forecasts-weak-sales-weight-143315521.html