Eli Lilly (LLY) shares fell 6% on Tuesday after the company updated its revenue guidance for 2024 and 2025. The news affected rival companies in the market for GLP-1 diet drugs, with Novo Nordisk (NVO) down 3.3% and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) suffering an 8.1% decline.
Eli Lilly’s updated forecast indicates that its 2024 revenue is tracking $4 billion above expectations, totaling $45 billion. However, the company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be lower than initially predicted, with sales potentially falling 3% short of guidance.
Despite this, management remains optimistic about the future, citing a strong outlook for 2025 with projected sales growth of 32%. The company forecasts $58 billion to $61 billion in sales for the new year.
Analysts should consider the mixed signals from Eli Lilly’s update. On one hand, the slower-than-expected Q4 sales may raise concerns about the market’s potential size. On the other hand, the 45% growth in the “incretin market” and Lilly’s own sales performance suggest that the company didn’t gain significant market share.
This news has a neutral impact on Eli Lilly stock price, but it may make Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock more attractive due to its relatively lower valuation of around one-third the 86 P/E ratio at Lilly.
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/01/14/eli-lilly-novo-nordisk-viking-stocks-all-dropped