The Academy Awards are set to take place amidst the backdrop of devastating wildfires in Los Angeles, prompting the question: should the ceremony proceed as scheduled or be delayed and cancelled? While there’s no clear-cut answer, one thing is certain – predictions for the Oscars are out.
In a unique attempt to provide insight into the awards season, author Ben Zauzmer has developed a mathematical model that weighs key inputs to predict nominees. The results are fascinating and hint at some potential surprises in the competition.
At the top of the list for Best Picture is a tight trio: “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” and “Anora.” These films have been strong contenders throughout awards season, with “A Complete Unknown” also showing significant momentum. However, the middle tier features five films that could make a compelling case for themselves – “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” “Sing Sing,” “September 5,” and “A Real Pain.”
For Best Director, the top three are identical to the Best Picture list: Brady Corbet, Sean Baker, and Edward Berger. The others have impressive films but face significant challenges.
In the Best Actor category, Adrien Brody of “The Brutalist” leads, closely followed by Ralph Fiennes in “Conclave.” Sebastian Stan, however, has an interesting opportunity to become the first actor with multiple leading nominations in a single year.
Best Actress is a two-horse race between Mikey Madison and Demi Moore, but Fernanda Torres’ surprise Golden Globe win could still make an impact. The final spot feels uncertain, making it anyone’s game.
Kieran Culkin is currently at the top of the Best Supporting Actor rankings, with Edward Norton, Yura Borisov, and Guy Pearce lurking closely behind. Jeremy Strong, Clarence Maclin, and Denzel Washington also appear in contention.
The Best Supporting Actress category has Zoe Saldaña as a lock, while Selena Gomez faces stiff competition from Ariana Grande and Isabella Rossellini. Felicity Jones’ low ranking may open the door for another contender.
In the Best Original Screenplay category, “Anora” and “A Real Pain” are strong frontrunners, followed closely by “The Brutalist” and “The Substance.” However, predicting the full list is challenging due to a lack of data.
The Best Adapted Screenplay category normally relies on the USC Scripter Awards, but this year’s delay may impact predictions. Golden Globe winner Conclave appears at the top, with Nickel Boys, Emilia Pérez, and Sing Sing following closely behind.
While the decision on whether awards season should proceed as scheduled remains uncertain, one thing is clear – the Oscars will go ahead on Thursday morning.
Source: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/oscar-nominations-odds-ben-zauzmer-2025