Bitcoin reached a record high of $109,321 on January 20, driven by expectations of a more crypto-friendly administration under US President Donald Trump. The optimism stems from campaign promises for regulatory clarity and the appointment of pro-crypto figures to key positions.
Despite the price surge, sentiment among Bitcoin whales and market makers remained stable, with little confidence in further gains above $110,000 in the short term. Analysts are monitoring the BTC futures premium and options skew metric to gauge trader sentiment.
The current 14% futures premium is moderate, exceeding the 10% neutral threshold but not indicating overconfidence. The Bitcoin options 25% delta skew at Deribit stands at -6%, suggesting a cautious level of optimism. This suggests that Bitcoin derivatives markets are not showing signs of overconfidence.
Some traders believe Trump’s inauguration may represent a “sell the news” event for Bitcoin, given the expectation of measures to support the crypto market and uncertainty surrounding US fiscal debt. The US federal budget deficit surged 40% in the first fiscal quarter of 2025, prompting investors to tread more cautiously.
While professional traders remain cautious about further price increases, there are no signs of a surge in bearish bets. Most traders have positioned themselves for sideways price action or stayed on the sidelines. A continued Bitcoin price surge could catch whales and market makers off guard, especially in a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment in the US.
This article is for general information purposes only and should not be taken as legal or investment advice.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news