Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered by an automated telescope in Chile last December, has triggered global planetary defence procedures due to its high risk of colliding with Earth in 2032. According to measurements gathered so far, the asteroid has a nearly 99% probability of passing by without incident.
The asteroid’s Torino Impact Hazard Scale rating is three, indicating a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers. The scale ranges from zero (no risk) to 10 (certain collision threat). While the asteroid poses a low risk of localised destruction, experts say continued monitoring is crucial to predict its trajectory with more accuracy.
The detection has activated two UN-endorsed global asteroid response groups, including the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group. These groups will make further observations to narrow down uncertainties in the asteroid’s orbit.
Astronomers are now making detailed observations over the coming months before the rock fades from view. If measurements rule out an impact in 2032, the asteroid may remain on space agencies’ risk lists until it comes back into view in 2028.
According to experts, the asteroid is of a scale that could be effectively addressed by a mission like NASA’s Dart, which has already tested deflecting asteroids with an intercepting spacecraft. The first step in planetary defence response is triggering further observations, followed by detailed characterisation measurements and discussion of potential mitigation missions if needed.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032