Astronomers are tracking a recently discovered asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032. The odds of impact have risen, but experts say it’s not yet time to worry. NASA and European scientists explain how they calculate the probability of an asteroid impacting our planet.
The chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth on December 22, 2032, were initially 1.3 percent in January. However, they rose to 2.3 percent before dropping slightly. This fluctuation is common for newly discovered near-Earth asteroids, and experts say it’s not a cause for concern.
“It is true that the probability of impact has doubled recently,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “But what matters is that the probability of impact is very small, and it is likely to drop to zero as we keep observing 2024 YR4.”
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a wide spotlight of possible future orbits, with some resulting in an Earth impact. However, many will shift away from Earth, keeping the probability low. As more observations come in, the spotlight shrinks, and the outliers are gone.
The quality of observations can affect the odds slightly, but experts say this is expected. Normally, additional observations significantly reduce orbital uncertainty, and the impact odds drop to zero. If this asteroid were to hit Earth, it would unleash a destructive force similar to a nuclear bomb.
“Even though the probability of impact is small, it is larger than we usually find for other asteroids,” Dr. Farnocchia said. NASA and ESA are taking 2024 YR4 seriously, but experts emphasize that the asteroid is unlikely to be on a collision course. The scientific community will continue to track 2024 YR4 until April, when more observations become available.
“The next significant asteroid impact may not be tomorrow or next week,” Dr. Farnocchia said. “We just don’t want to take any chances.”
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/08/science/asteroid-yr4-2024-impact-odds.html