Germany will hold a snap national election on February 23, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition. The current polls show the CDU/CSU leading by 8 points over the AfD.
The far-right AfD has gained 4.7 points since June 2024, while the SPD have lost 12.0 points and are now in third place. Both the SPD and the opposition conservatives have lost support in recent years, with smaller parties like the Greens and AfD gaining ground.
All major parties are fielding candidates for chancellor, but some face a high risk of missing the 5% electoral threshold to make it into parliament. These include the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).
The polls were estimated using local polynomial regression, which provides an accurate estimate of the parties’ support levels. With just over two months until the election, voters are expected to make their voices heard on February 23.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GERMANY-ELECTION/POLLS/akveedlravr