Asteroid 2024 YR4 has garnered significant attention due to its estimated 1-in-48 chance of impacting Earth in 2032. This space rock is approximately 177 feet wide and was first discovered on December 27, 2024, by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS).
The asteroid’s orbit presents a challenge for astronomers, with its trajectory requiring careful tracking to avoid trailing losses. In February 2025, the Gemini South telescope captured an image of the asteroid, which was around 37 million miles from Earth and 130 million miles from the sun at the time.
Astronomers are eager to study this asteroid in high detail due to its scientific potential. However, observing it requires large telescopes due to its faintness and proximity to the moon, which increases sky background light.
NASA’s Center for Near Earth Objects Studies (CNEOS) Sentry impact risk table has placed 2024 YR4 at the top of its list since its discovery, with the odds of impact in seven years climbing but expected to drop when the asteroid’s orbit is better understood.
The asteroid will become visible to ground telescopes in mid-2028 as it reapproaches Earth. As it fades from view until mid-March 2028, astronomers are taking advantage of this opportunity to gather data with space-based telescopes like the James Webb Space Telescope.
A recent study revealed that there is a circle of uncertainty inside which the asteroid will pass through Earth’s orbit. If Earth falls within this circle, the probability of impact increases. However, the exact probability distribution and current best estimate track are not publicly available due to the complexity of the calculations involved.
Source: https://www.space.com/asteroid-2024yt4-image-feb7