Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, may actually collide with the moon instead, scientists say. According to new estimates, there’s an even smaller chance that it might crash into our natural satellite.
The potentially hazardous asteroid measures about 180 feet across and is traveling at nearly 30,000 mph. If it hits the moon, it could release more energy than 340 Hiroshima bombs, making it visible from Earth. However, experts assure us that this would not pose a major threat to our planet.
“It’s unlikely to cause any significant impact on Earth,” said David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey. “The effects would be more like a pothole compared to the moon’s largest crater.”
In fact, astronomers predict that the asteroid’s kinetic energy would be lost to heating and radiated into space, with some ejecta potentially pushing in a different direction than the impact.
The moon’s orbital motion could experience a slight change due to the asteroid’s collision, but this effect is negligible. The Moon’s current velocity of 986 m/s would change by only 5.8e-13, which is not noticeable on Earth and even less so than natural astronomical influences like tides.
In summary, while an asteroid collision with the moon could release visible energy, it would not pose a significant threat to our planet. The moon’s stability is already robust, and its presence helps maintain life-sustaining ocean currents and tidal patterns that are adapted to much larger changes.
Source: https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say