NASA has reassessed the threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4, initially reported as having a nearly 100% chance of colliding with Earth. After collecting more data and refining its calculations, scientists have determined that the odds of impact have dropped to zero.
The asteroid’s trajectory was initially estimated to pose a significant threat, with potential impacts on cities like Mumbai and Lagos. However, following an increase in observational data, scientists adjusted their predictions, significantly reducing the likelihood of collision.
According to NASA, the current probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth is approximately 0.004%, or one in 25,000. This value has been further revised downward to a one in 59,000 chance.
NASA’s navigation engineer, Davide Farnocchia, notes that the agency’s predictions reflect normal behavior when discovering an asteroid. By measuring and refining its calculations, scientists have effectively reduced the uncertainty surrounding the asteroid’s route through the solar system.
While Earth is now deemed safe from asteroid impacts, NASA warns of a small chance – approximately 1.7% – that 2024 YR4 could collide with the moon. The agency will continue to monitor the asteroid using telescopes around the world until it falls out of view in 2028.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/science/asteroid-2024-yr4.html