Asteroid 2024 YR4, once deemed the riskiest asteroid on record, has nearly a zero percent chance of impacting Earth in 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency. The space rock’s estimated 0.0017% chance of hitting our planet means there is a 99.9983% chance it will safely pass by Earth in seven years.
The asteroid’s trajectory was first discovered last December, but new observations have reduced its uncertainty to zero. According to NASA, the latest data suggests that 2024 YR4 had a 1.7% chance of hitting the moon, but this risk does not pose a threat to Earth.
Astronomers have been monitoring the asteroid’s movement using telescopes across the globe, including those in Hawaii and New Mexico. The observations have helped reduce the uncertainty of its future trajectory, moving it farther away from Earth.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale has also revised 2024 YR4’s ranking to a 0 out of 10, indicating zero likelihood of collision. This ranking is given to small objects that burn up in the atmosphere or infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
The quick reduction in risk assessment is thanks to the “unsung, meticulous work” of astronomers who have been conducting follow-up observations using multiple telescopes. The asteroid’s size was also confirmed to be 131-295 feet wide, comparable to a large building, but its trajectory now indicates it will not impact Earth within this century.
Astronomers expect to remain vigilant in monitoring 2024 YR4’s movement and plan to use the James Webb Space Telescope to pin down more details about its orbit and exact size.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/24/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-impact-risk-decrease/index.html