A new study has revealed a clear and predictable pattern in the Earth’s climate cycles, suggesting that the next ice age could naturally begin in approximately 10,000 years. However, human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions have disrupted this cycle, making it unlikely that we’ll see another glaciation anytime soon.
The study analyzed a million-year record of climate change, documenting changes in ice sheets and ocean temperatures, and matched these changes with subtle variations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun. The researchers found a predictable pattern over the past million years for the timing of when Earth’s climate changes between glacial periods and interglacials.
According to the study’s lead author, Stephen Barker, “We were amazed to find such a clear imprint of the different orbital parameters on the climate record.” The team identified two types of changes in the Earth’s orbit that trigger the end of ice ages and their return. However, human greenhouse gas emissions have altered this natural cycle, making it uncertain when or if another glaciation will occur.
The study confirms the natural climate change cycles we observe on Earth over tens of thousands of years are largely predictable. However, with current human activities disrupting the cycle, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a return to glacial conditions anytime soon.
By analyzing past climate data and calibrating it with climate model simulations, researchers hope to quantify the effects of human-made climate change into the far future. This new understanding will help inform decisions about greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on the environment.
Reference: “Distinct roles for precession, obliquity and eccentricity in Pleistocene 100kyr glacial cycles” (Science, February 27, 2025)
Source: https://scitechdaily.com/the-next-ice-age-is-10000-years-away-or-is-it