Hezbollah’s 13-month war with Israel has ended with a 60-day cease-fire that the organization is struggling to convince anyone, except its most fervent loyalists, that is not a defeat. The group’s weakness and isolation are evident after three months of Israeli attacks that have decimated its leadership, including secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, and forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee their homes.
The war has left Hezbollah in disarray, with many of its opponents hoping it will no longer be able to impose its will on Lebanon’s political system. However, the group still maintains a large share of the country’s Shiite Muslim population and commands thousands of fighters.
Thousands of Hezbollah supporters poured back into Beirut’s southern suburbs after the cease-fire took hold, waving yellow flags and celebrating what they see as a victory. But the damage to Lebanon’s infrastructure and economy is significant, with an estimated $8.5 billion in physical damage and economic losses.
The new cease-fire also gives the United States an oversight role, a move that Iran and Hezbollah have long opposed. The arrangement is seen as a sign of Iran’s growing vulnerability and concern about its relationship with Israel.
Hezbollah’s presence on Israel’s border has been reduced, depriving Iran of a key defense mechanism. This shift in power dynamics could have significant implications for the region, with analysts warning that there remains a huge imbalance between Israel and Iran.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah faces an array of economic, social, and political challenges if the cease-fire holds. The group must now answer to fellow Lebanese who are angry about its role in dragging the country into a costly war. Caring for the displaced and repairing the damage will be a major challenge for both Lebanon and Hezbollah.
Despite the challenges ahead, Hezbollah’s remaining public figures have begun marketing the cease-fire as a victory, claiming their fighters kept firing missiles at Israel despite being attacked. The organization’s social service arms are already preparing to help the displaced return home, but it remains to be seen how effective this effort will be in winning back support from the general population.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/world/middleeast/hezbollah-israel-ceasefire.html