Scientists have discovered a clear link between Earth’s tilt and the formation of giant ice sheets. By analyzing the cycles of these parameters over the past 800,000 years, researchers found an “amazing correlation” between changes in obliquity and precession and the expansion and retreat of ice sheets. According to lead author Stephen Barker, if it weren’t for human-driven global warming, the next ice age would be well underway in 11,000 years.
The study reveals that ice sheet expansion is directly governed by obliquity, while the retreat of ice sheets is more dependent on precession. This means that without human activity disrupting these natural cycles, Earth’s axis would tilt at a certain angle, affecting how much solar energy hits each of the poles and leading to the formation of massive ice sheets.
However, with greenhouse gas emissions heating the planet, this predicted ice age has been pushed back. Researchers estimate that ice sheets would likely start expanding in around 10,000 to 11,000 years, but they would not reach their maximum extent for another 80,000 to 90,000 years. Experts agree that humans are disrupting these natural cycles through global warming, making it unlikely that a new glaciation will occur if CO2 levels remain high.
The study aims to build a picture of what the climate would do over the next 10,000 to 20,000 years without human activity, providing a long-term estimate of humanity’s impact on the planet.
Source: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/next-ice-age-would-hit-earth-in-11-000-years-if-it-werent-for-climate-change-scientists-say