A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, is on a collision course with Earth in 2032, but astronomers have significantly lowered the risk of impact. According to recent observations from the European Southern Observatory and other facilities, the chances of the asteroid striking Earth are now almost zero.
Initially, scientists had estimated an impact probability of around 3%, making it one of the most significant objects ever detected with a high collision risk. However, new data has provided a more precise picture of the asteroid’s future trajectory, resulting in revised probabilities of just 0.001% according to the European Space Agency and 0.004% according to NASA.
“The risk is plummeting,” said Olivier Hainaut, an astronomer at the European Southern Observatory. “We’re extremely fortunate that this asteroid will likely burn up in our atmosphere upon entry.”
The asteroid poses a significant threat due to its potential for regional devastation and loss of life. An impact by YR4 would release energy equivalent to 500 times the Hiroshima bomb, causing damage on a city-wide scale.
NASA has been monitoring asteroids since their discovery and is working towards developing planetary defense capabilities, including using robotic spacecraft like DART to change an asteroid’s trajectory if necessary. The agency also conducted a proof-of-principle mission in 2022 and is studying other asteroids, such as Bennu, which posed a potential threat in the future.
While the risk of impact for YR4 has decreased significantly, scientists continue to monitor asteroids for potential threats, emphasizing the importance of ongoing research and preparedness.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/astronomers-see-lower-risk-newly-found-asteroid-hitting-earth-2025-02-28