Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kursk was a carefully crafted show of military might, aimed at influencing US President Donald Trump’s approach to the Ukraine conflict. By dressing in military fatigues and framing his actions as a just war against an invading enemy, Putin sought to keep Russia’s maximalist war goals on the table while not exhausting Trump’s goodwill.
Putin’s conditionality for a ceasefire is clear: any deal must prevent Kyiv from regrouping and resupplying its troops. This sets the stage for Moscow’s demands, which include Ukraine not benefiting from Western security guarantees, hosting Western troops, or addressing “root causes” of the war – such as NATO enlargement.
Europeans should be wary of Putin’s rhetoric, as it may fall on deaf ears in Washington. Instead, they should focus on supporting Kyiv and preparing for a scenario where Russia’s demands are rejected. This could change Trump’s calculus, potentially shifting the balance of power in Moscow’s favor.
The US president’s approach to the war has been a boon to the Kremlin, allowing Moscow to pursue a more aggressive strategy. However, Putin must now navigate a tightrope between maintaining Trump’s goodwill and nudging his peace offer closer to Russia’s actual goals. If Moscow fails, it may be forced into a prolonged war of attrition – which is precisely what happened under Kamala Harris’ presidency.
By understanding Putin’s power play, Europeans can take steps to limit the Kremlin’s options and promote a lasting peace in Ukraine.
Source: https://ecfr.eu/article/putin-in-kursk-the-meaning-of-political-theatre