A turning point has been reached in the battle between fossil fuels and renewable energy. Chris Wright, former fracking executive turned US energy secretary, has declared war on climate change policies, claiming that net zero 2050 is “a sinister goal” and “unachievable.” However, experts argue that the opposite is true.
The Carlyle Group report “The New Joule Order” reveals that large parts of the world are decarbonizing at breakneck speed due to better alternatives to oil and gas. China has already achieved its target of 1,200 gigawatts of solar and wind power six years ahead of schedule, and Vietnam is on track to match China’s trajectory in even less time.
In contrast, Europe’s reliance on cheap Russian gas has led to industrial decline, and the North Sea has been in decline since the early 2000s. The geology of Europe is poor, making fracking an unviable option.
Renewable energy is becoming increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Solar panel prices have fallen from $4 a watt in 2008 to nine cents in December 2024, and battery cell costs are already below the “holy grail” tipping point of $100 per kilowatt hour.
The US oil industry is facing significant challenges, with two major fracking executives warning that the boom is already over. Harold Hamm and Scott Sheffield predict that US oil production will plateau by 2028, making it impossible for the country to achieve energy independence from imported oil and gas.
As renewable energy continues to surge, the oil industry’s triumphalism will end in tears. The US is taking a big risk by doubling down on fossils and combustion cars, leaving itself dependent again on imported oil and gas. It remains to be seen whether Trump will be able to reverse this trend, or if he will end up being the man who blew America’s energy independence.
Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/14/trumps-oil-triumphalism-will-end-in-american-tears