This week’s economic data is packed with crucial releases that will influence interest rate decisions, inflation forecasts, and consumer sentiment. Here’s a breakdown of the key events:
Monday:
The US Retail Sales M/M (Month-over-Month) is expected at 0.6% vs. -0.9% prior, with a focus on the Control Group figure. Consumer spending has been stable due to positive real wage growth and a resilient labor market, but recent easing in consumer sentiment due to trade wars and tariffs may impact spending.
Tuesday:
Canada’s CPI Y/Y (Year-over-Year) is expected at 2.2% vs. 1.9% prior, with inflation remaining within the target band despite a slight uptick recently. The BoC’s interest rate decision last week highlighted concerns over weaker growth due to trade uncertainty and US tariffs.
Wednesday:
The BoJ Policy Announcement is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.50%. Japanese firms agreed to lower-than-demanded wage hikes, which may impact expectations for future rate hikes. The Fed’s interest rate decision will also be closely watched, with projections for the Core PCE inflation measure likely influencing decisions.
Thursday:
Australia’s Employment report is expected to show 30K jobs added in February, with the Unemployment Rate remaining unchanged at 4.1%. The RBA’s recent interest rate cut and guidance suggest a cautious approach to future decisions. Meanwhile, the UK’s Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged, but high wage growth and sticky inflation may influence interest rate expectations.
Friday:
Japan’s Core CPI Y/Y (Year-over-Year) is expected at 2.9% vs. 3.2% prior, with a focus on the Tokyo CPI as a leading indicator for National CPI. The data will provide insights into inflation pressures and inform market expectations for future interest rate decisions.
These releases will offer valuable insights into economic trends, inflation forecasts, and interest rate decisions, making them crucial to watch this week.
Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-17-21-march-20250316