Wall Street economists are growing increasingly concerned about a potential US recession, with some now seeing a 50-50 odds of an economic downturn. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff plans, set to take effect on April 2, are at the center of the worry.
According to JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman, the likelihood of a recession has risen to around 40%, up from 30% earlier this year. However, if Trump’s tariffs come into force and have a significant impact on the economy, recession odds could jump to 50% or higher.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that there is a real uncertainty problem, citing Trump’s tariffs, immigration crackdown, and mass federal layoffs as contributing factors. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has also raised his recession odds to 35%, citing the impact of tariffs on consumer spending plans.
While some economists still hold out hope that negotiations will lead to reduced or eliminated tariffs, others believe the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies is doing significant damage to the economy. Surveys of consumers and businesses show a growing sense of gloom about the economic outlook, with even executives in deep-red states expressing concerns about business conditions.
As the situation continues to unfold, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has cautioned that there are no guarantees against a recession, but warned that continued high spending levels could lead to a financial crisis. The White House has defended Trump’s economic plans, citing record job growth and investment commitments from industry leaders during his first term.
Source: https://fortune.com/2025/03/16/recession-forecasts-50-50-odds-trump-trade-war-reciprocal-tariffs-federal-layoffs-bessent