The probability of a US recession is rising, according to the CNBC Fed Survey, which polled fund managers, strategists, and analysts. The survey found that 36% of respondents now believe there’s a recession risk, up from 23% in January.
Economic growth forecasts for 2025 have also declined, with an average forecast of 1.7%, down from 2.4%. Tariffs are now seen as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation as the biggest concern.
Most respondents predict two or more quarter-point cuts this year, and 3/4 of them believe tariffs will decrease US manufacturing output.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is facing a dilemma with rising tariffs and weaker growth. While over 70% of respondents think tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs, and growth, some believe they’ll increase manufacturing output.
The survey’s findings come as concerns grow about the Trump administration’s fiscal policies, particularly trade policy. Many investors worry that these policies could push the economy into recession.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/18/slower-economic-growth-is-likely-ahead-with-risk-of-a-recession-rising-according-to-the-cnbc-fed-survey.html