The Athletic has released its 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament projections, based on 200,000 simulations of the 68-team bracket. These projections take into account a team’s projected strength and path to the national title, providing an inside look at the run-up to March Madness.
The model uses various box score metrics to create an offensive and defensive projection for each college basketball team, estimating points scored and allowed against an average opponent on a neutral court. The simulations adjust for opponent, location, and team health, ultimately determining how likely a team is to win a given game.
According to the projections, teams have varying chances of advancing through each weekend of March Madness and cutting down the nets in San Antonio on April 7. The projections are updated after every tournament game, providing real-time analysis and picks for fans.
The Athletic’s 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament projections can be explored further by hovering or tapping on each team’s odds to gain a deeper understanding of their chances.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6198047/2025/03/18/mens-march-madness-projections-2025-full-ncaa-tournament-bracket-odds