Surprise rebel attacks in northwestern Syria may divert some of Russia’s attention away from its ongoing war in Ukraine, but it remains to be seen if this distraction will provide a lifeline for Kyiv. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, viewed as terrorists by the US, launched a lightning attack against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies.
Russia has been supporting Assad’s regime since 2011, providing decisive air power and broadening its grip on territory in Syria. However, the Islamist-led militants have caught Assad off guard, meeting scant resistance from regime forces. The Syrian military said rebels had made gains in Aleppo and Hama, but regime forces retook several villages close to the city.
The extent to which Russia might feel the need to intervene in a counterattack is unclear. Assad’s forces are keeping rebels nearly 10 kilometers away from Hama City. Russian jets are active in Syria, but this does not mean that significant forces have been deployed there.
Ukraine’s hopes of Russia becoming overstretched through continued military support for Assad may be bolstered by the conflict in Syria. The “important actor” in Syria is the Wagner Group and other paramilitary groups, which worked closely with local Kurdish forces deemed to be terrorists. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency said that Russia was sending fresh forces from private military companies to Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said “there is no doubt” that Russia’s direct participation was decisive in the Assad campaign when regime forces retook Aleppo in 2016. However, experts say that any level of Russian bandwidth diverted from Ukraine will be beneficial to Ukraine. The impact, however, is likely to be extremely limited, and the fighting in Ukraine remains too important to the Kremlin.
The success of the rebels may also have a psychological impact on Russia’s military personnel in Syria, with Arabic-Russian interpreters urgently heading for Hama. Russia has two bases in Syria – the Hmeimim base and the Tartus naval hub – which help project power into the Mediterranean. Reports suggest that Russia is evacuating its Tartus naval base, indicating that it may not intend to send significant reinforcements to Assad in the near future.
The timing is not ideal for Russia, but Moscow can afford to have a small contingent of forces operating in Syria. The impact on Ukraine may be more political than military, with any indication of Russia being weakened in Syria playing a significant role for Ukraine.
Source: https://www.newsweek.com/syria-crisis-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-bashar-al-assad-1994932