The US stock market has lost trillions of dollars in value since President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariff policy last week, and it appears that a strong end-of-year rally is needed just to finish flat. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are all down for the year, with the S&P 500 losing 8.8% to date.
Analysts had expected the US stock market to continue delivering solid returns in 2025, but most major Wall Street banks now forecast a downturn. Some even predict a recession as the stock market slide coincides with cratering bond markets and a devaluing of the US dollar.
To end the year flat, the S&P 500 would need to rise 9.4% from its closing price on April 11 to December 31, which is not an unprecedented feat. However, such growth only occurs in bull years, not during down markets like 2025. The worst performing year with a 9.4% gain was 2016, while the best was 1958 with a return of 43.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average face similar challenges. To end the year without a loss, the Nasdaq would need to rise 12.9%, which has happened 20 times since its inception in 1985, but only during positive years. The Dow needs to rise 5.4% for the rest of the year to finish without a loss, which has been successful 35 out of 35 times since 1958.
Despite these challenges, some analysts still hold out hope that the US stock market can recover and deliver strong returns in 2025. However, with most major banks now forecasting a downturn, it remains to be seen whether this will come to pass.
Source: https://fortune.com/2025/04/13/trump-tariff-stock-market-losses-dow-sp500-nasdaq-breakeven-rally