Oil prices rose marginally on Monday due to exemptions for some electronics from US tariffs and data showing a sharp rebound in China’s crude imports in March. Brent crude futures closed 12 cents higher at $64.88 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3 cents higher at $61.53.
The news comes after the Trump administration granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers, and some other electronic goods imported largely from China. This move has sparked uncertainty for investors and businesses.
Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports rebounded sharply in March, up nearly 5% from a year earlier, driven by Iranian oil and Russian deliveries. However, the US-China trade war continues to weigh on oil prices, with Brent and WTI losing around $10 a barrel since the start of the month.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing trade tariffs among the reasons. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 for the remainder of 2025, while UBS reduced its forecasts by $12 a barrel to $68.
Despite these uncertainties, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the United States could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump’s plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program. Iran and the US are set to reconvene for “positive” talks next week.
However, another factor affecting oil prices is the controlled restart of the Keystone pipeline, which was shut down last week due to an oil leak. South Bow detailed plans for a controlled restart, but it’s unclear when this will happen.
Analysts have mixed views on oil price forecasts for 2025 and beyond. Goldman Sachs sees Brent averaging $58 in 2026, while JPMorgan lowered its forecasts citing higher production from OPEC+ and weaker demand.
Overall, the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China continue to impact oil prices, but the recent exemptions from tariffs have provided some support for the market.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-flat-us-china-trade-war-weighs-global-growth-outlook-2025-04-14