Israel and the US have threatened to take out nuclear sites in Iran, but experts say that even massive firepower would only temporarily set back a programme they fear is aimed at producing atom bombs.
The recent deployment of B-2 bombers to within range of Iran has sent a potent signal about what could happen if no deal is reached. However, military and nuclear experts warn that US-Israeli military action would probably only have temporary effects on the programme.
“Ultimately, short of regime change or occupation, it’s pretty difficult to see how military strikes could destroy Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon,” said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology. “It would be a case of essentially trying to reimpose a measure of military deterrence, impose cost and push back breakout times back to where we were a few years ago.”
The breakthrough time refers to how long it takes to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb – currently days or weeks for Iran. While an attack could disrupt the programme, experts say it can’t destroy it.
Iran’s nuclear programme is spread over many sites, and an attack would likely have to hit most or all of them. However, even with massive firepower, the US wouldn’t be able to take out the two biggest enrichment sites, Fordow and Natanz, on its own. The US has a more powerful bunker-buster that can destroy these hard targets.
Despite the risks, analysts say an attack could drive the programme underground, end inspections, and potentially prompt Iran to develop nuclear weapons faster. “If you bomb Iran, Iran is going to almost certainly in my judgement chuck out international inspectors, make a dash for the bomb,” said James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The outcome of such an attack remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: it would buy time and potentially hasten the development of nuclear weapons.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/would-military-strikes-kill-irans-nuclear-programme-probably-not-2025-04-15