Economists are on the lookout for signs that a US recession may be looming, but they caution that a serious downturn is not inevitable. Two former Federal Reserve officials share their methods for gauging the economy’s health.
Al Broadus, former president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, uses traffic patterns to gauge economic activity. He recalls crossing a railroad line twice daily and watching for boxcars. “A dearth of traffic signaled leaner times,” he notes.
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan takes a different approach. He rests in his bathtub while reading reports on scrap steel prices, which he views as an indicator of the economy’s level of activity. While tariffs pose challenges to the economy, economists believe that a recession is not certain.
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economists-share-where-they-look-for-clues-that-a-u-s-recession-could-be-coming-24d9d88f