Economic warning signs are emerging as President Trump’s tariff policy raises fears of a recession. Several key indicators suggest a potential downturn, including declining stock prices and weakening consumer sentiment.
While real estate and unemployment figures remain relatively stable, concerns exist about rising foreclosures and potential job losses. The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has declined for three consecutive months, signaling further economic deterioration.
The impact of tariffs on the economy is being felt, with some economists predicting a “painful adjustment” and slow growth. Several early warning signs have emerged, including more going-out-of-business liquidations, spreading homeless encampments, and rising consumer inquiries about bankruptcy.
To predict recessions, economists rely on key indicators such as stock-market trends, real estate trends, unemployment rates, credit movements, and consumer sentiment. The Conference Board’s index includes 10 indicators that are tracked closely by economists.
The current economic outlook is uncertain, with some signs pointing to a weakening economy while others suggest continued growth. As the Trump Administration continues to adjust its tariff policy, businesses and consumers will be watching for further developments.
In conclusion, while a recession has not been officially declared yet, the leading indicators report from the Conference Board suggests that economic warning signs are emerging. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether the economy will continue on a path of growth or decline.
Source: https://eu.azcentral.com/story/money/business/2025/04/19/warning-signs-of-potential-recession-via-trump-tariffs/83142323007