A recent survey by JPMorgan has found that many investors believe a stagflation scenario in the US economy is more likely than a recession over the next year. The majority of respondents expect inflation to remain above 2% and stall economic growth, with one-in-five expecting inflation to exceed 3.5%.
The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is seen as having the most negative impact on the global economy. Investors are also betting against the US dollar, predicting an 8% decline in value compared to the euro.
Interestingly, cash is expected to outperform other asset classes in 2025, with yields on the 10-year note remaining above 4.25%. Brent oil prices are forecasted to stabilize around $66 per barrel, while emerging market equities are seen as a promising investment opportunity.
In contrast, investors are pessimistic about Wall Street stocks, with 57% expecting outflows this year. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing is also out of favor, with 30% committed to maintaining their strategies and 42% showing no interest.
The survey, which involved over 495 investors, highlights the divergent views among US investors compared to global investors on the impact of the regime change in the United States.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-survey-2025-04-25