The 2025 NFL season schedule is out, and with it comes our first glimpse at which teams are poised for greatness. According to Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model, the Baltimore Ravens top the list as the most likely team to win the Super Bowl with an 11.9% chance.
The Ravens’ strong AFC North division and recent success on the field make them a formidable force. Lamar Jackson is still electric at quarterback, and the team’s core remains intact. Expect the Ravens to be a major player in the playoffs once again.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles have a much lower 7.8% chance of winning it all, despite being the defending Super Bowl champions. While they have key components returning, parity in the league makes it difficult for any team to repeat as champion.
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to win 10.8 games, which would be their lowest total since 2017. However, the model believes in parity, and many teams could surprise with at least 12 wins.
In terms of playoff contestants, the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Texans, Bengals, Broncos, and Chargers make up the AFC field, while the Eagles, Lions, Buccaneers, 49ers, Packers, Rams, and Commanders comprise the NFC. The model is optimistic on two new teams, the Bengals and 49ers, which could potentially make a deep playoff run.
Coaching changes also play a role in these projections. Mike Vrabel’s Patriots are seen as one of the top contenders with a strong roster and a healthy Christian Barmore. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears’ Ben Johnson faces skepticism due to their disappointing offseason.
As for the Browns, they’re not looking good after doubling down on Deshaun Watson last year and now having the potential for another low season.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6359070/2025/05/16/nfl-super-bowl-playoff-projections-2025