US President Donald Trump has sparked concerns about a potential strike on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with experts warning that regime change could lead to internal fragmentation and chaos in the country. The comments from Israeli and US officials have prompted speculation over what Iran might look like if Khamenei is killed.
Khamenei has ruled Iran for over 35 years and has consolidated power under strict Islamic law. His death would create uncertainty, with experts warning that the country could face a range of scenarios, including regime collapse or descent into chaos as ethnic groups vie for power.
Iran’s diverse population, including Persians, Azeris, Arabs, Baloch, and Kurds, have faced discrimination and marginalization under Khamenei’s rule. Minority groups, such as Azeris and Kurds, make up around 20% of the country’s population and have been subjected to inequity.
If Iran’s regime falls, experts fear that ethnic separatist groups could gain support from Israel and potentially the US, leading to a situation where remnants of the state are consumed by fighting separatists. Others warn of a descent into civil conflict, citing concerns about the potential for violence and instability in the country.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/20/middleeast/israel-us-iran-khamenei-regime-change-scenarios-intl