Social Security payments are expected to increase by 2.5 percent in 2026, according to a new cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) estimate based on today’s inflation. This would be the same percentage increase as in 2025.
The latest projection is based on the consumer price index, which rose 2.4 percent year over year in May. However, President Donald Trump’s recently enforced tariffs have not yet had a significant impact on inflation.
Most financial advisers agree that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) may not be the best measure for seniors, leading to lower COLA increases. Instead, experts recommend using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which would have delivered a higher increase.
The Social Security Administration will officially announce the 2026 COLA in October, based on the most recent inflation data for the third quarter. If the tariffs do impact prices, the COLA could surge higher.
Source: https://www.newsweek.com/social-security-update-how-much-payments-could-rise-2026-2086385