The Arctic is rapidly losing its ice cover, and a recent study suggests it could become completely ice-free by the end of the decade. The term “ice-free” refers to areas with less than one million square kilometers of sea ice, which researchers measure using “sea ice extent.”
Combining 11 climate models, researchers found that nearly one-tenth of scenarios predicted an ice-free day within the next 10 years. Even conservative models estimate the Arctic will be ice-free within 30 years.
While the first ice-free day won’t have a significant impact on global temperatures, it would serve as a powerful symbol of human influence on the planet. However, continued climate change could lead to more extreme weather events and accelerate warming due to the albedo effect.
The study found that an ice-free Arctic will not occur solely from warm summers but also from warm winters and falls. The transition period is expected to last between 11 and 53 days. Changes in emissions can slow down melting, potentially avoiding an ice-free day.
However, conditions in the Arctic are highly variable, making predictions challenging. If global warming stays below 1.5°C, researchers believe it may be possible to avoid an ice-free Arctic within this century.
Source: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/ice-free-arctic-could-come-130041375.html