Two major investment banks, Goldman Sachs and HSBC, have forecasted that oil prices could surge to as high as $110 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. The critical waterway, which accounts for about a fifth of global oil consumption, would see oil flows halve for a month before remaining down by 10% for 11 months.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will average around $95 in the fourth quarter of 2025, while HSBC forecasts prices to top above $80. The prediction is based on a high probability of Iran closing the strait this year, with data from Polymarket suggesting a 52% chance.
The economic incentives for preventing a sustained disruption of the Strait of Hormuz are believed to be strong, according to Goldman Sachs. However, HSBC warns that oil prices will rise if there is no disruption, as higher probabilities of a closure or retaliatory actions by Iran following US military strikes against its nuclear sites.
In contrast, if there is no disruption, OPEC+ is expected to add supply, leading to a decrease in demand and lower Brent prices from $67 to $65.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-sachs-warns-rising-risks-energy-supply-sees-potential-surge-oil-prices-2025-06-23