The US military ordered bombings on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. However, nearly two decades of debate has led to a stalemate between the relatively dovish US intelligence community and Israel’s hawkish stance.
The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) stated that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Since then, the intelligence community has consistently concluded that while Iran possesses an enrichment program, it has not built an atomic bomb. The assessment remains unchanged despite recent claims by some experts and policymakers.
Israel and neoconservative Iran hawks have disputed this assessment for years, arguing that Iran could build a bomb quickly. However, Iran suspended its weaponization program in 2003 and hasn’t tried to build a bomb since. The regime prefers maintaining the threat of nuclear capability rather than actual possession.
This mindset echoes Saddam Hussein’s approach during the Iraq war. He eliminated his WMD programs but continued to signal their presence to deter other countries. This led to intelligence failures, including false pre-war reporting on Iraq’s alleged WMD stockpiles.
Trump is taking a different approach, with a reduced interest in expert assessments and increased pressure from Israel. The President recently dismissed US intelligence on the Iran nuclear program, citing no new evidence.
The lack of new intelligence justifying Trump’s actions has sparked criticism from congressional Democrats. Senator Mark Warner stated that the President bombed Iran “without regard to the consistent conclusions of the intelligence community”. The US intelligence community remains committed to its assessment: while Iran possesses an enrichment program, it has not built an atomic bomb.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/23/trump-israel-iran-nuclear-facilities-cia