Two former State Department officials and a senior fellow at The Washington Institute have weighed in on the recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, offering differing perspectives on the conflict’s trajectory.
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the DIA’s estimates as “conservative” and expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of the military strike. Miller warned that maintaining a cease-fire would require creating conditions for negotiation with Iran and Israel separately.
Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, also expressed concerns about the Iranian regime’s resilience in the face of military strikes. She noted that publicly available intelligence suggested the regime had not been weakened domestically but warned that future protests or economic crises could pose significant threats.
Both experts underscored the difficulty in predicting Iran’s nuclear ambitions post-strike. Miller emphasized that the U.S. would need to navigate complex conditions, including monitoring mechanisms and potential Israeli pre-emptive strikes, to guarantee success. Dagres highlighted the risks of mass executions and repression if the regime takes revenge on dissidents.
The conversation underscores the complexities surrounding the conflict, with differing views on the effectiveness of military action and the feasibility of regime change.
Source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/whats-next-for-irans-regime-after-u-s-strikes-and-israel-ceasefire-analysts-weigh-in