Asteroid 2024 YR4, a 53-67 meter diameter rock hurtling towards our solar system, has sparked concern over its potential impact on the moon. With a probability of collision now standing at approximately 4% by December 22, 2032, astronomers are left with an uncertain future.
Discovered in December 2024, this asteroid was initially detected by automated systems and raised global attention as it became the first to trigger a coordinated planetary defense response. However, after follow-up observations using the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists ruled out an Earth impact in 2032. Unfortunately, they could not rule out a lunar impact.
The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking the moon remains at 4%, with a 96% chance it will not hit the celestial body. This uncertainty will be resolved when the asteroid returns to view in June 2028, allowing astronomers to make new observations and confirm whether it will indeed collide with the moon.
Although an impact is still considered unlikely, scientists are taking precautions for the possibility. With Europe’s planned NEOMIR space telescope set to launch in the early 2030s, this satellite will fill a critical blind spot in asteroid detection systems. By scanning infrared light instead of visible light, NEOMIR will be able to detect asteroids approaching Earth that are at least 20 meters across.
The discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 highlights the importance of improving Europe’s planetary defense capabilities. With the launch of NEOMIR and other initiatives, scientists aim to provide more accurate predictions for potential asteroid threats, ensuring a safer future for both astronauts on the moon and those on Earth.
Source: https://phys.org/news/2025-06-asteroid-yr4-moon.html