Climate scientists have found that Earth’s energy budget is out of balance, with more heat entering the atmosphere than leaving. This imbalance has doubled over the last 20 years and now exceeds previous predictions by climate models.
Tracking energy inputs and outputs helps researchers understand the climate system better. The current imbalance suggests climate change might accelerate in the coming years. However, funding uncertainty in the US threatens our ability to track this balance accurately.
The energy budget functions like a bank account, with solar energy entering and heat leaving through greenhouse gases and other means. Natural fluctuations occur, but human activities, such as burning coal, oil, and gas, contribute to the imbalance. This extra heat warms land, melts ice, and goes into oceans, causing temperatures to rise.
Scientists use two methods to track the energy balance: direct measurements of solar radiation and temperature readings from robotic floats in the oceans. Both approaches show a rapid increase in the imbalance, contradicting previous predictions by climate models.
Changes in clouds are thought to be a key factor behind this acceleration. Clouds have a cooling effect but their composition is shifting. The exact cause is unclear, with possible factors including reduced sulfur emissions and natural fluctuations like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
The findings suggest recent extreme heat events may not be isolated incidents but part of a larger warming trend. This could lead to more intense climate impacts in the future, such as severe heatwaves, droughts, and marine heatwaves.
To mitigate this, reducing fossil fuel burning and phasing out emissions is crucial. Accurate record-keeping and satellite monitoring are essential for detecting unexpected changes in the energy balance. However, funding cuts in the US threaten these efforts.
Source: https://theconversation.com/earth-is-trapping-much-more-heat-than-climate-models-forecast-and-the-rate-has-doubled-in-20-years-258822