The US believes only one of Iran’s three main nuclear facilities was destroyed in recent strikes, casting doubt on President Trump’s claim that Tehran’s program had been “totally obliterated.” Officials and experts say there are ongoing analyses of the damage at Natanz and Isfahan, but the current indication is that these sites were not dealt a knockout blow.
The objective to collapse Fordow’s deeply buried infrastructure seems to have succeeded, according to US war planners. However, significant unknowns remain, including whether centrifuges at Fordow were destroyed or moved before the bombing.
The bunker-busting bombs used in the strike were not deployed at Isfahan due to concerns it was “pretty much impenetrable.” Instead, surface targets were targeted by a submarine. The situation at Natanz is less clear, with some underground rooms destroyed but the subsequent intelligence picture being less robust than at Fordow.
US officials acknowledge that Iran’s nuclear program has been degraded considerably, but it’s unclear whether and how quickly Iran could resume its march toward a bomb. Experts warn that Iran’s supreme leader and other senior leaders may pursue a nuclear weapon if they feel their defense was penetrated so decisively.
The recent strikes have raised questions about the effectiveness of US diplomacy in preventing Iranian aggression. Experts say the issue is not just the result of intelligence estimates, but whether it’s worth negotiating with the Iranians to achieve a lasting ceasefire.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/18/iran-nuclear-bomb-damage-assessment-obliterated