A new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that two-income retired couples may face an average annual benefit cut of $18,100 when they retire at the start of 2033. This drop is expected to occur just after Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is depleted by late 2022.
The depletion of the OASI Trust Fund will lead to reduced benefits, with the amount paid out decreasing as scheduled benefits continue to exceed dedicated revenues. By 2099, benefit cuts are projected to increase by over 30%, according to CRFB.
The impact of these cuts will vary depending on factors such as age, marital status, and work history. For example, a typical single-earner couple may face a $13,600 cut, while a dual-earner low-income couple could see an annual reduction of $11,000.
With nearly 67 million Americans relying on Social Security, the loss of benefits will have significant effects. According to a recent AARP survey, nearly two-thirds of retired Americans rely substantially on Social Security, and the trust is deemed important by 96% of Americans in 2025.
To mitigate these cuts, Congress may consider increasing revenue through payroll tax hikes or reducing overall spending on benefits. Eliminating the maximum taxable income for payroll taxes and reducing benefits paid on higher earnings are also potential measures to take.
Source: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2025/07/24/social-security-checks-smaller-depletion-2033-cut/85355210007