When scientists spot an asteroid whose trajectory might take it close to Earth, they closely monitor its movement and calculate the probability of a potential collision. The more data they collect, the better their understanding of the asteroid’s path.
The case of the 2024 YR4 asteroid serves as an example. Initially, the impact probability was reported to be over 1%, but it decreased significantly after further observations. As of June 15, the probability is less than 0.0000081%. However, the probability of hitting the Moon has increased.
To determine whether an approaching object can hit Earth, researchers use astrometry, a technique that accurately determines an asteroid’s orbit down to only a few kilometers of uncertainty. This method provides a range of possible orbits, known as an error ellipse, which encloses the locations where the asteroid might intersect with Earth.
The impact probability is a single value indicating how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth. However, using this figure alone can be misleading without context. To provide better guidance for future threats, scientists may consider refining their predictions or introducing new metrics.
As our expertise in defending against unexpected threats grows, it’s essential to have accurate and clear communication about the risks associated with asteroids like 2024 YR4. By understanding the complexities of asteroid tracking and impact probabilities, we can develop more effective strategies for mitigating potential hazards.
Source: https://www.space.com/astronomy/asteroids/how-do-scientists-calculate-the-probability-that-an-asteroid-could-hit-earth