Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially thought to be on a collision course with Earth, has zoomed beyond the reach of telescopes and is now drawing attention to another possible target: the moon. The building-sized object, estimated to be around 200 feet in diameter, was discovered at the end of 2024 and had previously peaked at a 3.1% chance of hitting our planet by December 22, 2032.
According to NASA, recent observations have improved astronomers’ knowledge of where YR4 will be in seven years by almost 20%. The data suggests that even if Earth avoids direct impact, YR4 could still pose a threat in late 2032 by slamming into the moon. This impact would create a once-in-a-lifetime event for humanity to witness but also send fine-grained lunar material hurtling toward our planet.
While Earth wouldn’t face any significant physical danger from an asteroid strike on the moon, there is a risk to astronauts and infrastructure on the lunar surface, as well as satellites orbiting our planet. Researchers are assessing the potential chaos of such an event and whether anything can be done to mitigate it.
Scientists are now considering extending their planetary defense efforts to include monitoring asteroids that might be headed for the moon. Dr. Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy and physics at Western University, noted that “we’re starting to realize that maybe we need to extend that shield a little bit further.” The asteroid’s journey highlights the importance of tracking objects that are often impossible to see.
To deflect YR4 or any other potential moon-bound asteroids, researchers are exploring various options. NASA has already tested an approach in 2022 with its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission. The DART spacecraft intentionally slammed into a smaller asteroid, Dimorphos, and successfully altered its orbit.
However, the effectiveness of such missions depends on future risk assessments by planetary defense groups when YR4 comes back into view around 2028. For now, scientists are weighing options for deflection and preparing for potential consequences, including a massive meteor shower that could affect Earth’s satellite fleet.
The discovery of asteroids like YR4 underscores the need to constantly monitor potentially hazardous objects in our solar system. New telescopes, such as NASA’s NEO Surveyor and the European Space Agency’s NEOMIR satellite, are expected to improve detection capabilities and help track near-Earth objects more effectively.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/25/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-potential-lunar-impact