Tesla Warns of Q4 Slump as US EV Sales Fall Behind Global Pace

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has expressed concerns that the end of U.S. government support for electric vehicles could lead to a decline in sales, citing the company’s recent revenue and delivery drop. The automaker is now relying on its affordable model and autonomous ride-hailing roadmap to regain momentum.

Global EV sales continue to rise, with 9.1 million units sold worldwide in the first half of 2025, according to Rho Motion. China led the way, accounting for 60% of global new energy vehicle output, while Europe’s Chinese brands gained share despite new tariffs.

In contrast, the US market is faltering, with EV sales falling by 6.3% in Q2 compared to Q2 2024. Analysts predict a temporary Q3 bump before a deeper Q4 slump as consumers rush to claim federal tax credits before the deadline. Infrastructure gaps are also compounding demand risks.

Tesla’s global deliveries dropped to 384,122 vehicles in Q2, down 13.5% YoY, while General Motors and Ford increased sales but slowed EV investment due to cost pressures. The U.S. policy environment is shifting rapidly, with the “Big, Beautiful Bill” eliminating federal EV tax credits as of October 1.

As momentum remains strong globally, the energy sector may need to revise projections downward, and battery producers may face excess capacity if demand softens. Tesla’s ability to reposition with a lower-cost model or make good on its robotaxi promises will be key to predicting US trajectory.

Source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Is-Falling-Behind-in-the-Global-EV-Race.html