US President Donald Trump is set to announce a deal to end the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, experts warn that the road to a lasting peace is rocky and will depend on several key challenges being addressed.
Trump plans to meet with Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Friday to sign the agreement. The US has successfully resolved one major dispute between the two countries – granting development rights to build transportation links in the Zangezur Corridor, a strategic stretch of territory.
However, other challenges remain, including whether the US will restore security assistance to Azerbaijan, which was paused by the Biden administration due to Baku’s close ties with Russia. Matthew Bryza, a former negotiator, said that restoring funding could be a “nice cherry on top” for Azerbaijan, but it would also require Pashinyan to pass an amendment to Armenia’s constitution removing any suggestion that Nagorno-Karabakh is Armenian territory.
The deal also does not address the status of displaced Armenians or the release of Armenian prisoners of war. Still, a successful agreement would be a major breakthrough in integrating the Caucasus region and help the US maintain its standing in the area.
Mike Carpenter, senior director for Europe on the Biden administration’s National Security Council, said that a deal could diminish Russia’s influence and Iran’s role in the region. The Treasury Department has also announced new sanctions against Iranian entities helping the country evade sanctions.
The announcement comes hours after the White House suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin should meet with Trump before their planned meeting. The Kremlin confirmed that both leaders are interested in a bilateral meeting, but its interest remains uncertain.
Source: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2025/08/07/trumps-caucasus-peace-gambit-00498549