President Donald Trump’s trade policies are facing widespread criticism, with a new analysis showing that he is underwater on tariffs in nearly 70 countries and 40 states across the US.
According to data from Strength In Numbers/Verasight polls, just 41% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of trade with other countries, while 59% disapprove. This dismal approval rating holds true even in major battleground states such as Iowa, Texas, and Florida.
A closer look at state-level approval ratings reveals that swing states are strikingly negative on tariffs, with an average approval rating of just 41%. In competitive states, Trump’s approval rating is weakest in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where voters approve of his handling of trade by just 39% and 40%, respectively.
The analysis also shows that even in deep-blue states, Trump’s policies are unpopular. However, he manages to stay afloat in many deep-red states due to partisan loyalty. The data suggests that tariffs aren’t simply a partisan loyalty test, but rather an issue that is causing concern among rural voters in these states.
With unemployment claims at their highest level since the COVID-19 recession and inflation on the rise, Trump’s use of emergency powers for his tariff plan is facing mounting opposition. The courts may rule against him, or members of Congress could force a vote on presidential tariff powers.
These state-level approval estimates can serve as a valuable tool for policymakers, journalists, and campaigns who want to understand the geographic contours of public opinion on key policies. By providing a high-resolution look at how opinion varies across the country, these estimates fill a crucial hole in Washington’s collective understanding of public opinion.
The analysis was conducted using a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, which produced state-level approval estimates that reflect both the patterns in survey data and the known partisan and demographic makeup of each state. The results have uncertainty intervals ranging from 2 to 6 percentage points, depending on the state.
Overall, Trump’s trade policies are facing significant backlash, with widespread criticism across nearly all states. As the president navigates his re-election campaign and deals with opposition from Congress, these state-level approval estimates can provide valuable insights into public opinion on key policy issues.
Source: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-is-underwater-on-trade-in-40