A massive earthquake in Myanmar has raised questions about the likelihood of “The Big One” in California, with some scientists warning that it may look unlike any other quake in history or forecast models.
Researchers found that the 7.7-7.9 magnitude quake in central Myanmar ruptured a longer section of the Sagaing fault than previously thought possible, causing damage as far away as Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam and Ruili, China. The quake killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar and another 63 in Thailand.
However, a new study published by Caltech researchers suggests that the Myanmar earthquake does not offer clear clues about “The Big One” in California. According to lead author Solene L. Antoine, “Earthquakes never come back exactly the same way,” making it difficult to predict what future quakes will look like.
Unlike the San Andreas fault, which has a slow-moving section known as the “creeping section” between Parkfield and Hollister that rarely produces significant shaking, other sections of the California fault system could rupture in separate earthquakes or become larger quakes. This raises questions about what “The Big One” might look like.
While scientists acknowledge that large earthquakes often occur on faults with a history of destructive events, predicting their characteristics remains a challenge. Jean-Philippe Avouac, coauthor of the study, suggests building models that simulate San Andreas fault earthquakes over thousands of years to better understand possible scenarios.
A USGS expert warns that even smaller magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in California within the next 30 years are likely to occur, with a 72% chance in the Bay Area and 60% in Los Angeles. However, focusing solely on major earthquakes like magnitude eight may be misguided, as most hazards come from moderate earthquakes like the 2014 South Napa quake.
Source: https://patch.com/california/across-ca/cas-big-one-could-look-nothing-weve-attempted-predict-researchers-say